3 Reasons We’re Definitely Not in a Housing Bubble

from Keeping Current Matters

Home values appreciated by about ten percent in 2020, and they’re forecast to appreciate by about five percent this year. This has some voicing concern that we may be in another housing bubble like the one we experienced a little over a decade ago. Here are three reasons why this market is totally different.

 

1. This time, housing supply is extremely limited

The price of any market item is determined by supply and demand. If supply is high and demand is low, prices normally decrease. If supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally increase.

In real estate, supply and demand are measured in “months’ supply of inventory,” which is based on the number of current homes for sale compared to the number of buyers in the market. The normal months’ supply of inventory for the market is about 6 months. Anything above that defines a buyers’ market, indicating prices will soften. Anything below that defines a  sellers’ market  in which prices normally appreciate.

Between 2006 and 2008, the months’ supply of inventory increased from just over 5 months to 11 months. The months’ supply was over 7 months in twenty-seven of those thirty-six months, yet home values continued to rise.

Months’ inventory has been under 5 months for the last 3 years, under 4 for thirteen of the last fourteen months, under 3 for the last six months, and currently stands at  1.9 months  – a historic low.

Remember, if supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally increase.

 

2. This time, housing demand is real

During the housing boom in the mid-2000s, there was what Robert Schiller, a fellow at the Yale School of Management’s International Center for Finance, called “irrational exuberance.” The  definition  of the term is, “unfounded market optimism that lacks a real foundation of fundamental valuation, but instead rests on psychological factors.” Without considering historic market trends, people got caught up in the frenzy and bought houses based on an unrealistic belief that housing values would continue to escalate.

The mortgage industry fed into this craziness by making mortgage money available to just about anyone, as shown in the  Mortgage Credit Availability Index  (MCAI) published by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The higher the index, the easier it is to get a mortgage; the lower the index, the more difficult it is to obtain one. Prior to the housing boom, the index stood just below 400. In 2006, the index hit an all-time high of over 868. Again, just about anyone could get a mortgage. Today, the index stands at 122.5, which is well below even the pre-boom level.

In the current real estate market, demand is real, not fabricated. Millennials, the largest generation in the country, have come of age to marry and have children, which are two major drivers for homeownership. The health crisis is also challenging every household to redefine the meaning of “home” and to re-evaluate whether their current home meets that new definition. This desire to own, coupled with historically low mortgage rates, makes purchasing a home today a strong, sound financial decision. Therefore, today’s demand is very real.

Remember, if supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally increase.

 

3. This time, households have plenty of equity

Again, during the housing boom, it wasn’t just purchasers who got caught up in the frenzy. Existing homeowners started using their homes like ATM machines. There was a wave of cash-out refinances, which enabled homeowners to leverage the equity in their homes. From 2005 through 2007, Americans pulled out  $824 billion dollars  in equity. That left many homeowners with little or no equity in their homes at a critical time. As prices began to drop, some homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation where the mortgage was higher than the value of their home. Many defaulted on their payments, which led to an avalanche of foreclosures.

Today, the banks and the American people have shown they learned a valuable lesson from the housing crisis a little over a decade ago. Cash-out refinance volume over the last three years was less than a third of what it was compared to the 3 years leading up to the crash.

This conservative approach has created levels of equity never seen before. According to Census Bureau  data,  over 38% of owner-occupied housing units are owned ‘free and clear’ (without any mortgage). Also, ATTOM Data Solutions just released their fourth quarter  2020 U.S. Home Equity Report,  which revealed:

“17.8 million residential properties in the United States were considered equity-rich, meaning that the combined estimated amount of loans secured by those properties was 50 percent or less of their estimated market value…The count of equity-rich properties in the fourth quarter of 2020 represented 30.2 percent, or about one in three, of the 59 million mortgaged homes in the United States.”

If we combine the 38% of homes that are owned free and clear with the 18.7% of all homes that have at least 50% equity (30.2% of the remaining 62% with a mortgage), we realize that 56.7% of all homes in this country have a minimum of 50% equity. That’s significantly better than the equity situation in 2008.

 

BOTTOM LINE

This time, housing supply is at a historic low. Demand is real and rightly motivated. Even if there were to be a drop in prices, homeowners have enough equity to be able to weather a dip in home values. This is nothing like 2008. In fact, it’s the exact opposite.


 

Market Updates & Listing Outreach from CLR Agent Phil Booth

We are in a VERY UNIQUE WINDOW right now, which reinforces that there may not be a better time to sell than the second quarter of 2021!

We are currently in an extremely strong sellers market.  There is very little housing inventory (low supply) and an abundance of buyers (high demand).   This situation is a direct reflection of concerns around COVID and super low mortgage interest rates.  These factors are colliding to create a ‘perfect storm’ for sellers.

To explain concisely, there are two forces at play:

1. SUPPLY (SELLERS) – There are many would be sellers who have chosen to hold tight over the past year and not sell because of COVID.  They simply do not want to open their homes up to buyers!  As such, we have had and continue to have historically low inventory.

2. DEMAND (BUYERS) – There is super high buyer demand based on COVID… there is a dramatic influx of people moving from denser population centers to the area, there are many people who, having spent more time than ever at home over the past 12 months, have realized that their current home does not meet their needs  Couple these factors with the fact that money is ‘cheap’ at present… people looking to capitalize on historically low interest rates.

THE RESULT.  When properties come onto the market that are well prepared, well presented, and well priced, we are seeing extremely high showing demand and multiple offers, at well above asking price.   This phenomenon is causing rapid appreciation.  In the last 12 months in Boulder County we have seen appreciation of up to 20% for single family homes and 10% for attached dwellings.  And, this pattern is continuing stronger than ever here in 2021, with 2% appreciation per month in certain areas and price points!

However, this supply and demand imbalance is likely to balance out in the second half of 2021. WHY?

1. SUPPLY – As we see higher vaccination rates (hopefully by mid summer) home owners will feel less wary about COVID and will feel more comfortable about selling, and will be HIGHLY motivated to realize the rapid appreciation they have seen in their homes.

2. DEMAND – We are likely to see interest rates creep up, which will cause buyer demand to wane somewhat.

It is still promise to remain a Sellers’ market, but not to the degree of imbalance we are seeing at present.

Hence, the second quarter of 2021 is a fantastic opportunity to sell and realize the benefits of  THE PERFECT STORM!

Phil Booth

REALTOR®

303-817-8307

Phil@ColoradoLandmark.com

 

Spring 2021 Buyer, Seller + Millennial Guides Are Now Online

Great news! Spring 2021 Buyer & Seller Guides are now available! Both Guides speak of present, crucial information about today’s housing market in an easy-to-understand way.


Seller Guide

Selling your house when the fewest number of homes are available to buy is what puts you in the driver’s seat. With today’s high buyer traffic and low inventory of houses for sale, this power combination makes now the optimal time to sell, if you’re ready. Whether you want to move-up or downsize, here’s the breakdown on supply and demand and why this imbalance in the current housing market positions this season as the optimal time to make your next move.

 

Buyer Guide 

The housing market recovery has been nothing short of remarkable. Many experts agree the turnaround from the nation’s economic pause last year is playing out extremely well for real estate, so it’s an ideal time to buy a home for those who are ready to make a purchase. Here’s a dive into some of the biggest wins for homebuyers this spring.

 

Millennials Guide

If you are one of the millions of millennials who has seen their peers begin to buy homes recently and are wondering what it would take for you to do the same… you’ve found the right eGuide!

There are many stereotypes and myths about the millennial generation as a whole, AND about what it takes to buy a home in today’s market. These myths have prevented many millennials from even considering homeownership as an option for them and their families.

The goal of this eGuide is to provide you with the information you will need to make the best decision for you and your family in regards to homeownership. We will break down the myths and stereotypes that have long been believed to be true, as well as shed light on the opportunity you have to build wealth using your monthly housing cost.


 

The Spring 2021 Luxury Portfolio Magazine is Now Available

NEW LUXURY PORTFOLIO MAGAZINE: NATURE AND HOME DESIGN

Just released, LPI’s Spring edition of Luxury Portfolio magazine explores biophilia, or the desire to be near nature, and how it relates to home design. The issue also notably features second home market trends, sustainable luxury brands, celebrity homes, and more.


NATURE AND HOME: BIOPHILIA IN DESIGN

Biophilia has been steadily trending in home design for years, and it’s only been exasperated with greater time at home and the need for a tranquil and healing space. In our exclusive four-page spread “Nature and Home: Biophilia in Design,” we explore the definition and its incorporations by exceptional designers and architects. The piece offers everything from eco-friendly design tips to a Disappearing Pool (yes!).

The nature theme is found throughout the issue, also showcasing outdoor furnishings, our favorite houseplants, and tips for exterior living.

 

A LOOK AT ETHICAL LUXURY

In our latest edition of recurring article “Jet Set,” we looked at four ethical luxury brands from around the world, including recognizable names Stella McCartney and Bobbi Brown, as well as beautifully crafted sustainable jewelry and clothes made from seaweed.

Additionally, LPI conducted a Q&A with the Chief Sustainability Officer of Tiffany & Co., Anisa Kamadoli Costa, to gain insight into how Tiffany has been influential in promoting ethical practices among luxury brands.

 

BREAKING TRADITION: THE SECOND HOME MARKET

Second home markets have shattered expectations in 2020. To gain insight into various markets, we interviewed experts from Brown Harris Stevens – The Hamptons; Chase International; John R. Wood Properties; Turks and Caicos Property; VALLAT; and The Whistler Real Estate Co. Ltd. The article explores how the markets are performing and the most popular amenities within the respective regions.

 

NOTABLE OWNERS

Every issue, we make a point to showcase celebrity homes. The most recent lineup includes athlete Derek Jeter and popular musical artists, like John Lennon, Katy Perry, and Sonny Bono.

 

BONUS: EXTENDED INTERVIEWS

In the coming weeks, be sure to keep up with our blog. Every week for six weeks, LPI will share extended interviews from the issue. Including designer insight on biophilia, a look at various second home markets, and an extended interview with Tiffany & Co.

 

Read the  digital edition, request your  print copy, or view our  press release for additional details.

 


 

Top 5 Questions to Ask Your Agent About Your Home Insurance Policy

Custom content created by Bennett & Porter Wealth Management + Insurance

 

Buying homeowner’s insurance is so much more than just filling in the paperwork and signing above the dotted lines. There are a lot of considerations that should go into making the decision — if you want to end up with the right policy, that is.

It doesn’t matter if you’re a first-time home buyer or someone that has previously purchased home insurance; discussing these points with your insurance agent will help ensure that you get the level of coverage and protection that you need.

 

How much home insurance do I need?

Some homeowners purchase home insurance for the sake of compliance, without even knowing if they’re buying the right amount of coverage or not. You don’t want to buy too much or too little insurance — either way, you could be on the losing end of the deal. Make sure you have enough coverage to keep your home protected.

You can insure your home for its actual cash value or replacement cost value. An actual cash value policy factors in the depreciation cost of your home into the claim payout, which means you need to pay the deductible + shell out money out-of-pocket for the repairs/restoration. With a replacement cost policy, you’ll only have to compensate for the deductible to restore your home to its former glory.

 

What does my homeowners’ policy cover?

Standard home insurance policies come with four main types of coverage:

1. The dwelling coverage, which protects the structure of your home from specific types of perils, including damages due to fire, explosion, smoke, and vandalism.

2. A personal property coverage, which covers the repair/replacement of your personal belongings in case of loss, theft, or vandalism.

3. A liability coverage, which should take care of the legal and medical expenses (either in part or in full) arising from 3rd party injuries in your home or if you have inflicted damage on other people’s property.

4. An additional living expenses (ADL) coverage, which will cover your temporary living expenses while your home is under repair after sustaining serious damage from a covered peril.

Insurance companies typically offer additional coverages and endorsements that you can add to your core policy to increase its coverage. Discuss these options with your agent.

 

Am I covered for all types of damages and disasters?

Your standard homeowner’s insurance will protect you from most common perils, but policies typically exclude coverage for floods and other natural disasters, like earthquakes. Damages resulting from war, nuclear explosion, and power failures may also not be covered.

If you live in a flood-prone or earthquake-prone area, it should be in your best interest to add a flood or earthquake coverage to your portfolio for an extra layer of protection. Ask your agent if a flood or earthquake insurance would be necessary.

 

What if someone gets injured in my home?

Your personal liability protection coverage should kick-in in case of an injury in your property. It will pay for the medical expenses and legal bills and damages (if you are sued), but only up to the amount specified in your policy.

Standard homeowner’s insurance typically includes $100,000 worth of liability coverage but you may raise this if you think you need more. You’ll want to make sure you’re fully covered in case of accidents and injuries in your home. Your agent can help you determine the right amount of liability insurance to purchase.

 

How can I reduce my monthly premiums?

Opting for a higher deductible is the easiest way to cut the cost of your monthly premium, but it means you’ll have to pay more money out-of-pocket in the event of a claim. You may also further reduce the amount of your insurance policy by taking advantage of credits and discounts offered by insurance companies.

Most insurance providers give insurance credits to students, non-smokers, retirees, etc. They also offer a multi-policy discount to those who purchase more than one policy from them, for example: auto insurance and home insurance. One advantage of bundling your policies is that you only have to deal with one insurer for your insurance needs.

Insurance companies don’t usually advertise their discount offers, so make sure to ask your agent if you qualify for any.

 

Just Released! The Modern Luxury : Reimagined

Luxury Portfolio International® has released its latest report, which delves into luxury real estate trends and the effects of COVID-19. 

Findings include: 

  • Real estate is the next big buy:  61% of those surveyed indicated their next big buy will be a home-related investment.

  • The seller’s market:  The current ratio of buyers-to-sellers, on average, is 3 buyers for every 2 sellers.

  • Face-to-face preferred:  61% of affluent buyers and 57% of affluent sellers noted that they prefer face-to-face property tours, with the expectation that agents enforce safety protocols.

  • PLUS: Most popular amenities by home price and generation. 

 

View the entire digital version here!

 

Homeownership Is a Key to Building Wealth

from Keeping Current Matters

For years, real estate has been considered the best  investment  you can make.

A major reason for this is due to the net worth a household gains through homeownership. In fact, according to the  2019 Survey of Consumer Finance Data  from the Federal Reserve, for the average homeowner:

 

“…a primary home accounts for 90% of the total wealth of a family in the U.S.”

 

How do homeowners gain wealth?

 

Click here to read the entire article and find out! 

 

Landmark Advantage Transitional HELOC Program

Ready to buy but need time to sell? Move on your terms with a Transitional HELOC.

When you work with Colorado Landmark Realtors, you get access to the Transitional Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) program from Elevations Credit Union, the No. 1 credit union mortgage lender in Colorado.


Access your home equity without rushing to sell.

With this customized short-term loan that’s similar to a Bridge Loan, you get access to the equity in your current home so you can make an offer on your next home — without rushing to sell. After your home is sold, the proceeds are applied to pay off your Transitional HELOC.


A Transitional HELOC is a flexible solution.

While Elevations tailors each loan to the buyer’s needs and best interest, consider a Transitional HELOC if:

 

  • Your money is tied up in the equity of your current home.
    Fund the down payment or mortgage payments for your next home with a Transitional HELOC — a great option in Colorado where properties are in high demand.

 

  • You need to renovate your current home.
    Move out before your home becomes a construction zone so you can boost your home’s value and get ready to sell.

 


*Offers of credit are subject to credit approval. Available equity is dependent upon the difference between your current home value and your current mortgage balance(s) to include all loans that are secured by your current home.


 

Boulder Named Among Most Stable Housing Markets In U.S.

Boulder, CO has been once again named as one of the most Stable Housing Markets in the US, according to a study just released by Smart Asset.

Boulder was number 3 on the list, and according to the study, “The Boulder, Colorado metro area also had a 0% chance of a 5% drop in housing price in the 10 years after it was purchased, within the time period from 1995 to 2019. The overall growth in home prices in Boulder in those 25 years was 251.21%, the 15th-highest growth rate across all 357 metro areas in the study.”

Fort Collins, CO also made the list at #6, and Denver, CO at #35. 

8 Great Reasons to Buy This Home!

by Phil Booth

Hey there my fellow CLR folk,

 

I have this great property listed for sale at 775 Kalmia Ave, in Boulder.  This is a wonderfully secluded and peaceful spot, and with over 8500SF on 1.3 acres, there is plenty of elbow room.

 

I thought you might enjoy an easy look at the property by checking out this great new ‘Studeo’ interactive story-book.  Huge thanks to Alyssa for helping me produce this.  She did a great job of compiling and editing this great piece.  She pushed the boundaries of the ‘Studeo’ platform in creating this and, I think it came out really well!

 

Please click on the link to check it out, and please feel free to share this link with your buyers.

 

http://775kalmia.landmarkstories.com

 

AND NOW,  the 8 great reasons your buyers might want to buy this property.

 

A recent (April 2020) poll by realtor.com, revealed some interesting facts about what is really important in our homes, given our new ‘Stay-at Home’ perspectives!  Based on the poll, the following attributes surfaced as being really important to homeowners.
a quiet neighborhood
outdoor space
proximity to grocery stores and pharmacies
additional square footage
multiple flexible spaces with privacy
an updated kitchen
space for a home gym
OK, that is only 7… and the 8th, and BONUS reason…. AN INDOOR SWIMMING POOL!

 

Feel free to reach out with questions.

 

Be well and stay safe.

 

Phil Booth 

REALTOR

303-817-8307

Phil@ColoradoLandmark.com